How will Abe's assassination influence Japan and the world?

The shocking death of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has raised questions not only about the assassination itself, but also the future of Japan as well as the world.

How will his death influence the politics of the country? Will their economic policies change? And how will the incident affect the relationship between Japan and other countries?

Japanese studies expert Lian Degui, with the Shanghai International Studies University (SISU), believes that the incident will exert more influence on the politics of Japan than economics.

The director of SISU's School of Japanese Studies, Lian told Shanghai Daily that the attempt at constitutional reform, which Abe regarded as his personal political ideal, may be aborted.

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"Abe was applauded by Japan's conservative groups, or what we call the 'right-wing' groups," Lian said. "Their wish for constitutional reform had been long existing even before Abe was in power. Meanwhile, Abe himself carried on his maternal grandfather's unfinished dream of revising the constitution, which hit it off with the right-wing groups."

The current Constitution of Japan was mostly drafted by a committee of 24 Americans, both military and civilian, and approved by General Douglas MacArthur, who oversaw the occupation of Japan from 1945 to 1951.

For a long time, the right wing in Japan pursued revising Article 9 of the Constitution, which contains a "no war" clause.

Nobusuke Kishi, Abe's maternal grandfather, who served as prime minister from 1957 to 1960, argued that Japan would not be able to prevent others from invading if it alone renounced war.

Statistics show that Abe, Japan's longest-serving prime minister, mentioned constitutional reform more than 1,200 times after he came to power in 2012, but two months before he left the office in 2020, 69 percent of people polled opposed the idea.

"Now that Abe is gone, the right wing loses a major pushing hand," Lian said. "This would be a big blow for them, and revising Article 9 will be faced with more difficulties than before. However, we will not expect that the foreign policy of Japan will make a sudden, sharp turn because the fact that it allies with the United States will not change."

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Meanwhile, Abe's death might give the current Cabinet a freer range to adjust domestic economic policies.

According to Lian, during Abe's ruling period, under the concept of "Abenomics," a controversial economic stimulus strategy that was applauded by many economists, Japan's economy grew quickly. But the gap between the rich and the poor also widened.

"That was actually not very common in Japanese history, which overall had a relatively equitable distribution of wealth," he said. "The current Fumio Kishida Cabinet is trying to adopt what he calls 'new capitalism,' which pursues a more fair society. With Abe gone, Kishida may feel less checked."

Some Japanese economists, however, are more pessimistic. Forbes Japan quoted analyst Mariko Mabuchi that Abe's death may give an impression that "Abenomics is over."

"The Japanese economy, which had long been troubled by a strong yen, recovered under Abenomics, and now (his death) might overshadow future economic development," Mabuchi said. "For me personally, it's hard to accept that the prop of the Japanese economy is suddenly lost."

An anonymous Japanese financier with a foreign institution said the death of Abe might hit foreign investors' confidence in Japan.

"The policy of maintaining a weaker yen might change in the future," said the financier.

"To foreign investors, the influence of Prime Minister Kishida is not the same strong as that of Abe, which might hit their confidence. However, if the Liberal Democratic Party wins the upcoming Upper House election with a landslide victory, it will be a sign of political stability in Japan. Then it might be easier for the Kishida cabinet to make their policies and evaluated positively."

So how will the election go? Lian is quite confident that the Liberal Democratic Party will win.

"Abe was not a scandal-ridden prime minister, and his death, violent and unjust, will probably win sympathy from voters," Lian said. "Of course, the party is highly supported in the first place, so I will not be surprised that it'll be another victory for them."