Canada's dependence on US hinders its ability to improve ties with China

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada declared on August 26 that his country would emulate the United States by imposing a 100 percent tariff on electric vehicles manufactured in China, regardless of brands, in addition to a 25 percent levy on steel.

The move reflects the extent of deterioration of Canada's relationship with China, which has never fully recovered since the US-orchestrated case against Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2019.

Ottawa is now trying to portray itself as an "alternative supply chain" for essential minerals and goods, despite its comparatively limited industrial capacity.

Canada has almost no diplomatic interaction with China. A recent article even praised the outcome as a "success," holding China accountable for the complete breakdown in ties that has occurred since 2019.

Compared with the other Anglosphere countries – Australia, Britain, New Zealand and even the US – such a decline is striking.

Washington has the privilege of speaking with Beijing on its own terms, even if it is the one that incites animosity against China and pushes its allies in that direction. In a similar vein, Canberra and London have worked to reverse damaging policies from right-wing governments in favor of steady engagement, and New Zealand has always been friendly with Beijing.

Ottawa, though, stands out. At first glance, this seems like a strange occurrence, considering how liberal Trudeau is. Canada is actually the Western country closest to China in terms of culture, thanks to a large influx of Chinese immigrants that make up 5 percent of the population. However, this has also been a source of "yellow peril."

Ottawa's foreign policy appears to have been entirely dominated by American interests, and it is unable to steer its own foreign policy. While Canberra, Auckland and London may have a strong desire to support US objectives, they also possess the flexibility to act more nuanced or depart from the path if doing so serves their own interests.

Not so in Canada.

What is the rationale for this? Canada, despite being the second-largest country in the world geographically, is for practical purposes a smaller country with a population of 40 million. More importantly, 90 percent of this population live within 200 kilometers of the US border, with the largest cities located in a small enclave below the 45th parallel. Cutting out the vast expanse of snow and ice to the north, Canada resembles a smaller nation close to the United States. Its single main export market, the United States, is the reason for its complete economic dependence. Ultimately, Canada is a land of vast natural resources but thin on people.

Canada is also existentially dependent on the seaports of the United States, not its own, even if the Port of Vancouver is the country's major port for the Pacific, which is vital to China. One of Ottawa's main shipping lanes is the port of Orleans, and a map of Canada's freight train network quickly reveals the country's connection to the US.

Naturally, you then see that the entire Canadian trading network is dependent on the United States and, consequently, Washington's goodwill, as Vancouver is located far to the west and Louisiana provides a rather direct path to its big cities.

These economic and geographic groupings naturally lead to political realities. Canada is ultimately without sovereignty over its own trade and economic policy since it is bound by the rules of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which is governed exclusively by the US that is also its largest producer and customer. Geographically speaking, Canada and the US are connected, but because Canada is a weaker partner, the US dictates the direction of travel. This makes Ottawa the least Anglosphere nation in terms of its relations with China, along with its Anglosphere exceptionalist philosophy, a history of subtly elitist behavior, and its long-standing allegiance to the US.

Faced with NAFTA and US protectionism, Canada has no ability to direct the flow of its own trade relations with China in the face of NAFTA and US protectionism, and there is no political desire to even try to restore relations. If the Conservative Party of Canada gains power in the future, the situation is likely to worsen.

(The author, a postgraduate student of Chinese studies at Oxford University, is an English analyst on international relations. The views are his own.)