China likely to overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2028

Bank of Communications sees China's  economy growing above 5 percent over the next two decades.
Feng Jianmin / SHINE

Bank of Communications economists introduce the bank's latest report on the long- term forecast for the Chinese economy.

China is set to surpass the US as the world’s largest economy by 2028 with its economy growing above 5 percent over the next two decades, Bank of Communications said in a report today.

The bank’s baseline forecast sees China’s gross domestic product growing at 6.5 percent in the next three years, and  the average annual growth rate will be at 5 percent between 2021 and 2035.

China's GDP will exceed those of US and Europe combined by 2050, according to BoCom.

The bank said the target will be met if reforms progress steadily and production continues to improve efficiently.

Essential reforms, BoCom said, include cutting capacity within traditional high consumption industries, encouraging innovation and advanced technology, expand opening up process, balancing regional economic development, and drafting effective and prudent policies.

“China’s economy could yet grow relatively fast if reforms progress steadily,” said Lian Ping, chief economist of BoCom. “The strict bottom line is to prevent systematic financial risks.”

He said household consumption and higher added value exports will be the main drivers for China’s economic growth. 

At this year's Party congress President Xi Jinping set long-term goals for China’s development, envisioning the country as a modern socialist economy by 2035 and a strong and rich country by 2050.

China's GDP grew 6.9 percent in the first three quarters, above the official annual target of 6.5 percent and 6.7 percent in 2016.

But official economic indicators showed growth of factory output, investment, and consumption in October all slowed from September.

Central bank adviser Bai Chongen said on Tuesday that China should set a moderate economic growth target next year so that there will be room for structural reforms.

Top policy leaders will set major tasks and targets for economic development next year at China’s highest economic meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, set to be held between Monday and Wednesday.



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