'I lived with a humanoid for 48 hours.' No, it's not science fiction

"One thing about a science: it works."

– Chad Oliver, "The Imperfect Machine" (1948)

Filmmaker Jason Carman invited Neo, a humanoid under development by Norway's 1X Technologies, to his San Francisco apartment, under the aegis of robotics engineers from the company.

The experience was an eye-opener. During the 12-minute docu-series video, "I Lived with a Humanoid for 48 hours," the 1.6-meter, 30-kilo robot clad in a gray, white and black suit responded to verbal requests. He got a yellow capsicum from the refrigerator and told Carman how to sauté it, he made coffee, he told a joke, and he picked an egg out of a carton with two fingers and handed it to Carman.

When Carman asked Neo to prove that the eggs in the carton weren't hard-boiled, the robot dropped an egg on the kitchen counter, where it broke into raw yoke and white.

The video quite dramatically reflects the reality behind the popular buzz of humanoids. Neo and other robotic works-in-progress may be limited in what they can do now, but the potential is there to evolve into super-human androids as they become more sophisticated over time.

It all reminds me of recent trending videos and news about humanoids in China.

One video shows a humanoid at the Big Data Expo in the southwestern province of Guizhou who walks, or perhaps more accurately lumbers along, with the help of a human assistant. Many viewers commented that the robot walked like a drunk or perhaps like their granddad.

Another video shows three lifelike female robots at the 2024 World Robot Conference in Beijing, only to reveal that two of them are flesh-and-blood women dressed and made up to look like robots. The conference organizer later told Chinese media the impersonators were TikTokers who were not invited to the event by the conference or the company.

That little incident tends to prove Marc Reibert right. The chairman of Boston Dynamics said at the same five-day conference that humanoids are currently more of a show-off phenomenon than a productive force.

The 74-year-old made his comments during a dialogue with young chief executives from four Chinese robotics companies: Unitree, Robotera, GalaxyBot and the Beijing Embodied Intelligence Robotics Innovation Center.

Unitree was founded in 2016 and only recently expanded from four-legged robots, or "robotic dogs," to humanoids. The other three companies were founded in the last two years.

That is fairly common for humanoid startups.

For one, Shanghai-based Agibot, founded in February 2023, is reported to have finished six rounds of financing, with plans to deliver 300 robots – 200 of them humanoid – between October and end of the year.

The Beijing Embodied Intelligence Robotics Innovation Center was founded less than a year ago, and lists Xiaomi, Ubtech Robotics, Beijing City Electric Machinery and Yizhuang Holdings as founding shareholders. It recently launched the first external funding round.

Similar innovation centers have been started not only in tech hubs like Shanghai and Shenzhen, but also in areas of Anhui and Sichuan – provinces not commonly associated with tech wizardry.

The latest buzzword "embodied intelligence" is starting to appear in the plans of almost all provincial governments.

It is commonly paired with "new quality productive forces," another new buzzword coined by the Chinese government to describe new growth modes driven by technological advances.

Embodied intelligence, as I understand it, refers to a machine that has the "intelligence" to learn. That can be a self-driving car that can respond to situations beyond designed routine or maybe a refrigerator that can calculate calories and design a daily diet.

Whether these phrases are all just wishful thinking at this stage or not, the race is on to participate in what may be one of the most exciting developments of the 21st century.

The million-dollar question is: Who will be the Tesla, BYD or the Faraday Future in the realm of humanoids?

In 2018, an investor friend of mine wanted to learn how Chinese consumers view humanoids and asked for my help.

His request came not long after the Atlas humanoid developed by Boston Dynamics shocked the industry by doing a backflip, and it came just before Honda "retired" its Asimo humanoid, which was launched in 2000 and played soccer with US President Obama when he visited Japan in 2014.

The Honda decision to turn from humanoids to development of remote-controlled avatar robots was laid to the high costs, fierce competition from new players like Atlas and lack of a clear path to commercial viability.

At that time, nobody was really talking about humanoids in China. The buzz was all about electric vehicles: How much did Warren Buffet invest in Chinese electric carmaker BYD? Were electric vehicles just pie in the sky? Were they safe? Was it worth buying an electric car merely to obtain one of Shanghai's newly released green car plates when you had little hope of getting a license plate with an internal combustion engine?

Humanoids? What are you talking about?

In answer to my friend's request, I helped his team design a survey to include interviews in both factories and households. During the interview at one electric motor plant, the manager asked me what was my "ideal bionic pal. Give me your wildest imagination."

I replied, "Well, I want one as hot as Tony Leung, that works as hard as my mom's ayi (domestic helper) and that laughs to all my jokes. Oh, and not too expensive – maybe the price of a good car."

The manager, who was in his 50s, broke out into a hearty laugh.

"Maybe in your lifetime," he told me, "but probably not in mine."

Electric cars, at least on the streets of Shanghai, are now omnipresent after market competition drove prices down. The manager at the plant recently sent me a bunch of very technical articles on "coreless motors" – which are an important element for humanoids.

So now, all the talk has turned to general purpose humanoid robots that can learn and ultimately do any task.

Peng Zhihui, founder of Agibot, recently told Chinese media it would be 10 years before the humanoid of "I Robot" filmdom becomes a reality.

"Sci-fi movies like 'I Robot" raised people's expectations for robots, but we can probably make it happen eventually," the 31-year-old said in a recent interview. "There is no mid-stage between the 'below human' level and the 'super-human' level. Once the robot reaches the 'normal human' level, it will soon expand beyond. I'm saying we have hopes in the next 10 years, optimistically."

Peng previously noted that humanoid robots could be commercially viable if production costs could be kept at 200,000 yuan (US$28,000) or lower. More recently, he said that target has basically been achieved.

As with most new technologies, as volumes rise, costs drop.

Tesla founder Elon Musk said in June that the cost of one of his Optimus robots could be around US$10,000 at high production scales.

Both Agibot and Optimus robots are planned for use first in factories.

But let's get back to Neo. As the filmmaker fries the egg handed to him, the humanoid tells him, "It might be a few years before robots can take on full cooking duties flawlessly. For now, I'm here to keep you company. Maybe someday you will be able to relax while I do all the hard work."

I am left with a lingering question: Who is going to be the first to sell me that combination of Tony Leung and my mom's ayi?

On its website, 1X Technologies posts the following notice:

"Neo is your intelligent, everyday assistant. Join the waitlist and be the first to know when Neo is available."

Hmmm… should I sign up?