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Home » Opinion » Opinion Columns
Winter of discontent is both warm and cold
By Wan Lixin |
January 15, 2009, Thursday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
FUWEN County in Altai, Xinjiang, is experiencing another "warm winter."
In the northernmost part of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Fuwen is one of China's coldest areas. It registered a record low of minus 57 Celsius in 1965, which was very close to the all-time national low of minus 60 Celsius recorded in Mohe, Heilongjiang.
But during the past 20 winters, 19 were unusually warm, 16 of them categorized as "warm winters."
There's little snow. Ski resorts in Altai have to import snow to cover the ski runs. Some operators are considering snow makers.
I have not been to Altai for over 20 years, but should I be there, would it still be possible for me to recognize it as the place I was born and brought up?
In my memory, wintry Altai was always deep in snow, sometimes over one meter.
The winter there used to last over 200 days, with temperatures frequently dipping to minus 40 degrees Celsius.
I still vividly remember when our family's front door couldn't be opened because meters of snow had piled up outside.
My parents had to push repeatedly against the door so that my elder sister could squeeze through a small opening. She removed some of the snow so that the door could be pushed open.
Late January last year an unprecedented snow covered Shanghai in centimeters of heavy snow. This surprised a friend of mine in Xinjiang, because at that time in an area near Urumqi in Xinjiang there was precious little snow.
The consequence is already felt by the locals.
It was reported in May 2007 that 2 million hectares of pastureland in Altai, or more than one fifth of the total, had been overran by rats as a result of warm winter.
But although the receding snow lines in Xinjiang cannot be an isolated event, the news is seldom known outside this backwater town thousands of kilometers from China's coastal economic engine that is winning kudos from around the world for economic boom.
Now is probably not the best time to talk about "warm winter" ?? we are more inclined to use the term "harsh winter" in the context of deepening economic woes.
At the beginning there was optimism that the crisis ?? with a drastic slowdown in consumption ?? might prove an opportunity to save the planet.
What we are seeing now is that some governments are sacrificing green initiatives or reneging on green commitments to steer the economy through troubled waters.
Another winter
It is not accidental that so little was achieved during the UN-led negotiations on climate changes in Poland in December ?? this lack of significant progress exposes the huge gap between the understanding of climate change, and the willingness to act.
Plummeting oil prices ?? not depleting reserves of fossil fuels ?? are weighing heavily on the minds of policy makers today.
The clamor for the now ubiquitous "bailouts" afford local governments good excuses to push through projects that might be considered insufficiently green before the crisis.
A recent commentary in the Xinhua-sponsored Outlook Weekly frankly states that "Active Consumption is Patriotic.'' This is the most explicit endorsement of consumption yet.
One of my colleagues used to be critical of some young girls of fashion who managed to sport branded handbags and dress and car, on very limited means.
Now my colleague should be reminded that these girls are to be admired as paragons of virtues, representing the progressive elements of our society.
They have the proper sensitivity to advertising, dare to spend beyond their means, and find this immensely satisfying. They will buy the world out of the recession.
We should not be surprised that this brand of people are inheriting the earth.
Economic basis dictates the superstructure, as Marxists believe.
Decoupling
It is only when the economy is expanding hectically that environmentalists sometimes get a sympathetic ear.
That's when some policy makers occasionally deign to flirt with green concepts. These concepts temporarily ease their conscience and allay their fear about an uncertain future.
But when consumption slows, albeit in the slightest degree, the institutionalized establishments are wont to fly into a state of panic.
Here we see at work the mechanism of tight coupling in highly globalized and specialized modern economic activity.
Tight coupling refers to the fact that different parts of the economic process are highly interdependent, allowing little room for error or adjustment.
That alone explains why the first signs of pickup in the consumption of energy sends some people into euphoria. It also explains why major economies are singing the same tune, afflicted with the same fears, and prescribing the same tonic.
In his recent column (January 12 Shanghai Daily) Joseph Stiglitz observes that "the Fed resembles a drunk driver who, suddenly realizing that he is heading off the road, starts careening from side to side."
We can carry on the racing car simile by observing that the sudden halt of a shaky car can be disastrous.
For the time being keeping it running is more important than all those vexatious questions about where it is headed.
In the northernmost part of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Fuwen is one of China's coldest areas. It registered a record low of minus 57 Celsius in 1965, which was very close to the all-time national low of minus 60 Celsius recorded in Mohe, Heilongjiang.
But during the past 20 winters, 19 were unusually warm, 16 of them categorized as "warm winters."
There's little snow. Ski resorts in Altai have to import snow to cover the ski runs. Some operators are considering snow makers.
I have not been to Altai for over 20 years, but should I be there, would it still be possible for me to recognize it as the place I was born and brought up?
In my memory, wintry Altai was always deep in snow, sometimes over one meter.
The winter there used to last over 200 days, with temperatures frequently dipping to minus 40 degrees Celsius.
I still vividly remember when our family's front door couldn't be opened because meters of snow had piled up outside.
My parents had to push repeatedly against the door so that my elder sister could squeeze through a small opening. She removed some of the snow so that the door could be pushed open.
Late January last year an unprecedented snow covered Shanghai in centimeters of heavy snow. This surprised a friend of mine in Xinjiang, because at that time in an area near Urumqi in Xinjiang there was precious little snow.
The consequence is already felt by the locals.
It was reported in May 2007 that 2 million hectares of pastureland in Altai, or more than one fifth of the total, had been overran by rats as a result of warm winter.
But although the receding snow lines in Xinjiang cannot be an isolated event, the news is seldom known outside this backwater town thousands of kilometers from China's coastal economic engine that is winning kudos from around the world for economic boom.
Now is probably not the best time to talk about "warm winter" ?? we are more inclined to use the term "harsh winter" in the context of deepening economic woes.
At the beginning there was optimism that the crisis ?? with a drastic slowdown in consumption ?? might prove an opportunity to save the planet.
What we are seeing now is that some governments are sacrificing green initiatives or reneging on green commitments to steer the economy through troubled waters.
Another winter
It is not accidental that so little was achieved during the UN-led negotiations on climate changes in Poland in December ?? this lack of significant progress exposes the huge gap between the understanding of climate change, and the willingness to act.
Plummeting oil prices ?? not depleting reserves of fossil fuels ?? are weighing heavily on the minds of policy makers today.
The clamor for the now ubiquitous "bailouts" afford local governments good excuses to push through projects that might be considered insufficiently green before the crisis.
A recent commentary in the Xinhua-sponsored Outlook Weekly frankly states that "Active Consumption is Patriotic.'' This is the most explicit endorsement of consumption yet.
One of my colleagues used to be critical of some young girls of fashion who managed to sport branded handbags and dress and car, on very limited means.
Now my colleague should be reminded that these girls are to be admired as paragons of virtues, representing the progressive elements of our society.
They have the proper sensitivity to advertising, dare to spend beyond their means, and find this immensely satisfying. They will buy the world out of the recession.
We should not be surprised that this brand of people are inheriting the earth.
Economic basis dictates the superstructure, as Marxists believe.
Decoupling
It is only when the economy is expanding hectically that environmentalists sometimes get a sympathetic ear.
That's when some policy makers occasionally deign to flirt with green concepts. These concepts temporarily ease their conscience and allay their fear about an uncertain future.
But when consumption slows, albeit in the slightest degree, the institutionalized establishments are wont to fly into a state of panic.
Here we see at work the mechanism of tight coupling in highly globalized and specialized modern economic activity.
Tight coupling refers to the fact that different parts of the economic process are highly interdependent, allowing little room for error or adjustment.
That alone explains why the first signs of pickup in the consumption of energy sends some people into euphoria. It also explains why major economies are singing the same tune, afflicted with the same fears, and prescribing the same tonic.
In his recent column (January 12 Shanghai Daily) Joseph Stiglitz observes that "the Fed resembles a drunk driver who, suddenly realizing that he is heading off the road, starts careening from side to side."
We can carry on the racing car simile by observing that the sudden halt of a shaky car can be disastrous.
For the time being keeping it running is more important than all those vexatious questions about where it is headed.
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