Judicial resistance to Trump's tariffs weakens his hand, even as he appeals

On Wednesday, a US judge struck down President Donald Trump's blanket tariffs on countries all around the world following a lawsuit filed by business leaders and states, citing damage to their interests.

Although the Trump administration quickly filed an appeal and got temporary relief to uphold these tariffs, the psychological damage of the challenge is unmistakable: The idea that the president, or the executive branch alone, can arbitrarily and unilaterally set sweeping tariffs is being challenged. This challenge is rooted in one of the most critical features of American politics, "the division of powers."

It is thus argued that Trump, the executive, is overstretching his power by wielding a tool which must first be legally authorized by the US Congress, the legislative power of the country, and in turn can be challenged by the judiciary. Although there are some laws in place which specifically authorize the president to impose tariffs as he pleases in very specific circumstances, as he has done before, to unleash global tariffs against every single country in the world is legally unprecedented.

If it wasn't obvious by now, Trump strongly believes in an increasingly authoritarian and centralized executive, which has limited accountability to anyone else. This was the story of his first term, and it is even more so the story of his second already. Trump frequently utilizes executive orders to impose sweeping political moves on various issues, which in the divisive American political context is consistently met with legal pushback. Whether this be mobilizing the executive branch to detain and deport students who criticize Israel, cutting funding to universities citing political grievances or other things, Trump is the most strident advocate of the "Imperial Presidency" theory to date, even surpassing Richard Nixon, and he represents a massive expansion in executive power.

However, a judicial assault on his tariff policies constitutes a massive blow to the White House because it sharply targets his single most favorite and effective weapon against foreign countries. The president enjoys indiscriminately weaponizing tariffs in order to make others capitulate to his political demands, and there is extensive evidence of his administration attempting to use this in relation to China, with "cut ties with China to gain tariff relief" demands being made.

The judicial ruling, although still upholding Trump's levies, thus immediately weakens the president's hand as it shows that his measures are not as unilaterally decisive as they appear and therefore deprives him of negotiating leverage.

Therefore, if you are a country being pressured by Trump on trade, who is demanding all kinds of one-sided concessions for tariff relief, what do you do? The answer is you wait, knowing that the president's domestic hand is weakened due to internal legal challenges and contradictions, and you have the ability to buy time for yourself. Trump loves making himself appear as arbitrary, unpredictable, and using whatever leverage he can throw at you. If you do not align or conform, he habitually makes the situation worse and has no qualms whatsoever about doing unthinkable things. Trump concurrently hates any form of accountability, especially when it is from the domestic legal system of the US.

So even though the White House has gained "tariff relief," Trump suddenly does not look as powerful as he once was. This is because his push for centralization is checked and thwarted by the reality that the US is a bitterly divided political country and there are many interests pushing from many directions.

We've already seen how Trump can blink if his measures crash markets or threaten a recession, so as much as he is a disruptive force, he is not completely unassailable, and resisting Trump does not involve rhetorical or performative combat with him (i.e. escalation, because this is how he wins), but other sharper ways of resistance that inflict psychological doubt.

Trump thought he was going to overpower the entire world in a global spanning tariff war, now he has to put out the domestic fires pushing back, making it easier for other countries to negotiate more firmly, especially if the president wants to avoid embarrassment and still as he always does, proclaim a "win."

(The author, a postgraduate student of Chinese studies at Oxford University, is an English analyst on international relations. The views are his own.)