Why the return of Trump could be an opportunity for China

The return of the Donald Trump administration to the White House is one that will have great consequences for US-China relations. While it is quite obvious that this means new risks and uncertainties lie ahead, namely in the form of trade conflicts and tariffs, things do not have to be necessarily negative. Instead, it is time to take another approach by recognizing there are more inherent opportunities available under a Trump presidency which the current Biden administration has not been willing to give.

Although relations between the two powers first deteriorated under the first Trump administration, who pursued a trade war against China, the biggest decline came largely as a consequence of the pandemic which empowered the most ardent Neoconservatives in his cabinet, none of who will be present this time. Thus, rather than dreading his return, it is time to rethink Trump and challenge our assumptions.

First, Trump is a man who is willing to negotiate. This is his most distinguishing characteristic from mainstream American politicians, making him famously pragmatic. Trump after all met with Democratic People's Republic of Korea's Kim Jong Un and has already phoned with Russian President Vladimir Putin seeking to bring peace in Ukraine.

Likewise, when Trump unleashed a trade conflict with China, he ultimately sought to negotiate and bring down tariffs in favor of getting concessions. He publicly expressed that he sought to secure a "stage two" trade deal with China in 2020, but this did not happen owing to the pandemic. In contrast, we should note that the Biden administration refused to negotiate or compromise with China on any issue, at any time, and actively exacerbated geopolitical conflict on every front. We assumed that things would "go back to normal" with Biden, they did not, rather they got worse.

Second, giving Trump what he wants is the way to sideline Washington Neoconservatives, rather than opposing him. One huge strategic mistake I made in 2017-2021 was to simply oppose Trump on every front, believing erroneously that a change in administration would change the foreign policy. This assessment of US politics on the foreign policy level as a "binary" is fruitless as we now understand that with progressives on board, things do not change.

But Trump is different, and I had overlooked the fact that Trump's desire to negotiate with other states and make deals was a political check on those who sought a new Cold War. Thus, when Trump was able to market "political wins" for himself it actively contributed to peace in international relations and politically marginalized the hawks. Those seeking a confrontation with Beijing only truly gained power after the COVID-19 pandemic severely embarrassed the Trump administration prior to an election, and things would have turned out differently otherwise.

This teaches us an important lesson, China would be better off seeking to negotiate with Trump, most specifically on the issues of trade and market access. This means even if he dramatically escalates tariffs on China, Beijing can seek a mutually acceptable compromise.

I remember in the years following 2020 Chinese media became very critical of the US on a host of culture war issues, such as guns, and I must admit I authored a lot of those articles, which often triggered strong reactions from the American right.

While these pieces were a response to US misinformation and propaganda campaigns against China, I have realized these were counterproductive as they only sharpen US partisanship in a way which does not make any difference for China anyway. The answer of any pro-China communications approach to the United States is not to antagonize the country, but rather to steer the paradigm in a way which is most suitable to improving relations overall, and in this new context that involves ensuring Trump has everything he needs not to listen to ultra-hawks.

Thus, coordinate with Trump, tolerate his unpredictability and avoid creating crises which send relations off the cliff. Trump himself is not a Cold Warrior, and thus ironically he can be a great ally in reasserting a stable flow of relations. After four years of the Biden presidency, you realize now the alternative is not better and the caricature of Trump the liberal media depicts is very misleading. It's time to get smart in dealing with America than simply lashing out.

(The author, a postgraduate student of Chinese studies at Oxford University, is an English analyst on international relations. The views are his own.)