No more surly cab drivers? The robotaxi revolution is underway though hiccups remain

Last weekend's maiden test of Tesla robotaxis in Austin, Texas, might be called the perfect example of the idiom, "great cry and little wool."

In 2019, Tesla founder Elon Musk said the company was on the verge of providing a wide-ranging robotaxi service that "would change the basic way riders get around." Yet the initial trial covered only a small area, with a human sitting behind the wheel as a "safety" backup.

It was a lame start, to say the least, especially since driverless robotaxi services already have been around for about 10 years. Singapore staged an early trial in 2016. Google's Waymo launched a public robotaxi service in Phoenix, Arizona, in 2018 and has since expanded to other major US cities. And China's Baidu launched its Apollo Go service in 2019, expanding rapidly across several Chinese mainland cities.

But the question naturally emerges: When will robotaxi services, still mostly limited to trials, move into the mainstream of transport?

The honest answer? It takes time.

Let's look at an example in Shanghai. A robotaxi service in Shanghai, involving Baidu's Apollo Go and Pony.ai's Pony Pilot, began trials last year. Today, the service covers only suburban Jiading District.

Passengers can book the service from an app, free of charge for the first time, and get a cab ride that costs about half of mainstream taxis. The driverless vehicles run quite smoothly, programmed to recognize red lights, stick to the right lane and follow cars in a traffic jam.

However, the robotaxis run only between bus stops with fixed routes, and their speed is slower than common taxis.

Christine Zhang said she tried a robotaxi once – "just for fun" – but didn't find the service very practical.

"The usage is too confined," she said. "I called an Apollo Go on a rainy day, and because of bad weather there was a safety driver in the driving seat, but the car had to stop at programmed places. I asked the safety driver if he could stop the car 10 meters further on, and he told me it's impossible. He wasn't able to change the designed program but was present only to take over when danger presented itself."

Waymo in the US covers a large area, including parts of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix and Austin. On the social networking service Reddit, netizens praise Waymo for being safe and smooth, but they do complain about occasional glitches.

"I've taken a number of rides in SF and LA," said a user under the online name "germdisco." "I had a recent ride in LA where the passenger door stopped next to a large succulent and I scratched my leg getting in. I sent the company feedback about that, but I'm not sure how advanced their systems are in choosing a decent place to stop, where the doors can easily be opened without obstructions."

Another user called "hannahcshell" complained about robotaxis on crosswalks.

"I live in downtown Culver City (Los Angeles), and they've driven into the crosswalk multiple times when I was crossing," she said.

Yet, despite all the unresolved challenges of robotaxis, few believe they are just a passing Silicon Valley fad. Instead, they are seen as an inevitable, transformative trend that will define how we get around in future.

Investors are among the true believers. Tesla shares, after the Austin launch of its robotaxis, popped 8 percent to their highest closing price in about a month.

However, the shares lost steam in subsequent days after videos appeared showing some instances of careless driving, including driving on the wrong side of the road and mis-signaling at intersections. The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it's investigating.

Still, the Tesla aura fired up investor interest in self-driving companies. On Chinese markets, 10 companies involved in the technology – including Shenzhen-listed Wanma Technology and Zhejiang Sebo, and Beijing-listed Sanyou Technology – hit their daily trading limits.

China has become something of a pacesetter in the robotaxi realm. In a research report published last month, investment bank Goldman Sachs projected that China's robotaxi fleet will reach 500,000 vehicles by 2030, with the market value expected to hit US$47 billion by 2035.

It attributed the growth to the increasing acceptance of driverless cabs among consumers in China's biggest cities and to support for the new technology from government and insurance sectors.

In terms of commercializing robotaxis, China is a clear leader, largely due to a more favorable regulatory environment, rapid infrastructure adaptation and higher consumer acceptance.

Why is that?

Well, the economic and logistical arguments are compelling. The primary cost of cab ride will no longer be determined by human salary, but by the electricity powering the vehicle. That also portends an affordable alternative to costly private car ownership in densely populated areas.

Robotaxis are not just about saving a few bucks on the commute to work. They are also about unlocking greater mobility for people like the elderly and handicapped, and anyone in areas underserved by traditional transit.

As technology improves rapidly, safety concerns that once shrouded driverless cars are abating. Early-stage data points to a future where autonomous vehicles cause significantly fewer collisions and provide an overall safer road environment.

The real challenge lies in "precision." He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xpeng Motors, said earlier at a vehicle launch. Self-driving care must exhibit the same exceptional capabilities as a human driver-perception, decision-making and execution within the ever-changing tapestry of traffic flow, he said.

"Extreme conditions like rain, fog and nighttime driving serve as rigorous tests for this technology," he said. "Consequently, continuous efforts to optimize algorithms, enhance sensor performance and bolster system robustness become paramount. Only when the technology demonstrates stable, reliable operation across a diverse range of scenarios can it truly earn consumer trust and propel the industry forward."

At the same time, regulations covering driverless cars, currently a patchwork quilt of local rules, must evolve into a cohesive national framework. That is expected to occur in the next few years, as governments catch up with the technology.

One issue for policymakers is assigning responsibility when mishaps occur. Are operators at full risk, or do technology developers bear part of the blame?

In the meantime, robotaxi companies are exploring sustainable profit models, taking into account operational costs, efficiency and differentiated services as the market matures. And existing taxi drivers are grumbling about the future loss of their livelihoods.

We may continue to read about the occasional robotaxi misadventures – some even involving fatalities – but let's not lose sight of the bigger picture. These are the growing pains in a transportation revolution. The benefits – safer roads, cheaper rides, greater accessibility and even a greener footprint – are too significant to ignore. The future of our cities is not just electric; it's driverless and it's arriving faster than many realize.