Humanoid robots fascinate us, but it will be years before they reach an 'iPhone moment' in our lives

Humanoid robots have emerged as a dominant keyword in China's tech industry and a source of public awe, capturing headlines for feats ranging from marathon running to kickboxing competitions.

However, a cautious attitude prevails among industrial experts and investors, who point to a long journey ahead before these technological wonders find widespread commercial application.

Sun Lining, dean of Soochow University's School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, said humanoid robots are at least five years from their "iPhone moment" of mass commercialization. He added that advanced humanoids capable of complex tasks in sectors such as farming, factory work and elderly care could take a decade or more to appear.

For now, the show goes on as pioneers in the industry trot out their latest versions of humanoid in somewhat theatrical exhibitions. They may portend the future but they aren't there yet.

"Shanghai hopes to develop humanoid robots that can tackle everyday chores and industrial tasks, not merely perform for show," stated Jiang Lei, chief scientist of the National and Local Co-Built Humanoid Robotics Innovation Center, a public platform for robotic training and data collection.

Opportunities and obstacles

A recent conference on AI development and robotics held in the city's Zhangjiang High-Tech Zone – often dubbed the "Silicon Valley of Shanghai" – offered glimpses into both the opportunities and obstacles within the humanoid robot industry.

At the event, dozens of humanoid robots participated in specialized technical competitions, showcasing abilities like playing soccer, mimicking human expressions and climbing slopes. Over 60 developer teams gathered in the Zhangjiang Science Hall to exhibit their latest advancement, including robots undertaking trash removal, laundry sorting and stair climbing.

The event attracted thousands, including 200 industry players in humanoid and embodied intelligence fields, and over 5,000 developers, entrepreneurs and industry officials.

Winning teams from the competition will advance to the World Artificial Intelligence Conference scheduled for July in Shanghai, according to organizers Zhangjiang Group, the Shanghai AI Industry Association and DLG Exhibitions & Events Co.

Local firms like AgiBot, Fourier, Kepler and OYMotion showcased their latest humanoid robots and new product releases. OYMotion, which is based in the zone, unveiled a new-generation of robotic hands designed for applications ranging from medical rehabilitation to lifting up to 30 kilograms in factories.

"Our design strategy directly links development to market demands," said OYMotion founder Ni Hualiang.

Cost barriers

Despite progress in core components like robotic hands and sensors, humanoid robots still face a steep development curve in stability and usage range. There were unexpected failures at the Zhangjiang event, reminding everyone of the vulnerabilities in the industry. Humanoid players fell in soccer games, robots didn't manage to climb stairs and some weren't able to complete other competition tasks.

These misses echoed similar failures at the robot marathon in Beijing in April, where many robots didn't finish or even lost parts. Even the CMG World Robot Competition Series in Hangzhou last moth fell short of expectations, with human-controlled Unitree G1 robots battling with each other rather models from other brands.

High development cost remains a major deterrent for widespread adoption of humanoid robots. Prices for robots currently start at around US$20,000, making them inaccessible for the widespread application.

One Beijing-based humanoid maker at the Zhangjiang event told Shanghai Daily that its robots, capable of retrieving beverages or medicine from shelves and delivering them to consumers, now cost US$100,000 but will drop to about 200,000 yuan (US$27,800) in the future.

Chinese venture capitalist Zhu Xiaohu, a well-known investor with stakes in Didi and RedNote, publicly questioned the current commercial viability of humanoid robots, revealing his fund had exited several investments in the sector.

The path to a more robotic future

Shanghai, which accounts for one-third of output in China's robotics industry, is seeking to become a global robotics hub and is rolling out policies to support that ambition.

The city's strategy is to prioritize humanoid robots that solve practical problems in manufacturing and service industries. To achieve this, the city plans to collect 5 million pieces of robot data this year, making it the world's largest humanoid data bank. The data is expected to boost the operational accuracy of robotic AI models from the current 70 percent to over 90 percent, Jiang told in a Zhangjiang forum.

The aim is also to help local companies expand beyond China. OYMotion, for one, has secured various international certifications, including one from the US Food and Drug Administration. The company announced plans for a funding round to secure about 100 million yuan in investment this year, after a successful fundraising at the end of 2024.

Shanghai-based AgiBot's humanoid robot A2 has also received global certifications, reportedly becoming the world's first humanoid robot with certification from China, the European Union and the US.

Robots from AgiBot, a company that recently received investment from tech giant Tencent and Fourier Intelligence were showcased during Chinese President Xi Jinping's earlier visit to Shanghai. An impressed Xi encouraged the city to further develop its technological prowess, particularly in the fields of artificial intelligence and robotics.

ABB, an electronics giant involved in robotics, has established a robotics mega factory in Shanghai, one of three major robot manufacturing and research sites globally. ABB leverages AI and force sensors to equip its robots with "smart eyes," enabling them to navigate and grasp objects with enhanced precision.

Sami Atiya, president in charge of ABB robotics, said in Shanghai last week that China is a vast and rapidly growing market in robotics, accounting for over 50 percent of global demand for advanced automation.