The skies above us portend an auspicious, lucrative year for urban air mobility

The central government is elevating the rapidly emerging industry of low-altitude flight, principally drones and flying cars, onto a higher plane of development, with Shanghai positioning itself as a leader in urban air mobility.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China is predicting that the sector will grow to a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan (US$206 billion) this year and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035.

In the latest signs of expanding government support, the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planning body, announced on December 27 that it has created a separate division dedicated to the industry.

On the same day, the Ministry of Transport unveiled plans to accelerate general aviation, and the Ministry of Industry Information Technology announced a blueprint for developing infrastructure for low-flying vehicles.

These initiatives are expected to establish the regulatory and technological basis for industry progress, positioning it as part of China's future economic growth, according to Luo Jun, executive director of the China Low Altitude Economic Alliance.

"The creation of the low-altitude division marks the beginning of a national framework that will accelerate the sector's growth," he said. "This year will be a turning point, when the sector transitions from promoting the idea to full-scale implementation."

The low-altitude industry encompasses manned and unmanned aerial vehicles operating in airspace typically below 1,000 meters above the ground, with the flexibility to reach up to 3,000 meters when needed.

In February 2021, the concept of low-altitude vehicles was formally incorporated into China's national planning. It was later recognized as a strategic emerging industry at the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2023, and was officially included in the national Government Work Report in March 2024.

Technological advancements in drones and electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles have been outpacing progress in creating the infrastructure to support them, Gao Yuanyang, a leading expert in general aviation, told China Youth Daily.

"By the end of 2023, China had just 449 registered general aviation airports – far fewer than needed to meet the growing demand for urban air mobility," he explained.

The Chinese government is moving quickly to close the gap. The new division at the development and reform agency has already hosted symposiums focused on advancing low-altitude infrastructure and integrating intelligent network systems.

Zhu Keli, president of the China Institute of New Economy, told Shanghai technology news portal chinastarmarket.cn, "The low-altitude economy is still in its early stages, facing challenges in airspace management, safety and privacy. The establishment of the new division demonstrates the government's resolve to address these obstacles."

Alongside infrastructure development, talent recruitment is a critical component. The boom in low-altitude craft has created a new realm of jobs, particularly in drone operations. According to government estimates, China is currently facing a shortage of up to 1 million qualified drone operators. Furthermore, the growing demand for skilled workers extends to around 3.5 million roles in drone assembly and maintenance.

In response, six of China's top universities have recently applied to the Ministry of Education to launch new major programs in Low-Altitude Technology and Engineering.

Low-altitude technologies are also expanding into diverse sectors. For example, the National Healthcare Security Administration recently included air medical transport in its new pricing guidelines, spurring demand for air-based patient transport services. The General Administration of Sports is promoting air sports like drone racing and recreational aviation.

Local governments are integrating their own plans to dovetail with central government policy. Nearly 30 provinces and major cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have already included low-altitude transport development as a planning priority. Many of these jurisdictions are partnering with private businesses to co-develop low-altitude ecosystems and the establishment of low-altitude flight paths.

Shanghai is positioning itself as a leader in the sector with plans to incorporate flying cars into its public transport system. The city also aims to develop over 400 low-altitude flight routes by 2027, with trial operations for around 150 routes set to begin next year.

In addition to these developments, several regions have initiated industry funds and joint ventures dedicated to the sector's growth.

On December 20, Shanghai launched its first state-backed platform for low-altitude flight, with an initial investment of 900 million yuan. The platform will coordinate investments, manage operations and oversee infrastructure development.

"The creation of these platforms signals how businesses are positioning themselves to seize opportunities in this trillion-yuan market," said Huang Xiaofei, co-founder of Volant, a leading company in development of electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles. "With policies now in place, the next step is execution."

He added, "The next two to three years will be critical for the low-altitude economy. Building the right infrastructure, nurturing industrial clusters and creating key application scenarios are essential for the industry to take off and grow rapidly."

The economic impact of the low-altitude flight industry is already becoming evident. Global consulting firm Roland Berger forecasts that the global market for low-altitude industries could exceed 60 trillion yuan by 2050, with China poised to lead the charge.

As of last September, more than 50,000 companies were already engaged in low-altitude industries, according to CCID Consulting.