Oil output to stay limited under Saudi, Russia deal

OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC Russia have agreed a preliminary deal to extend existing record oil output cuts by one month while raising pressure on countries with poor compliance to deepen their cuts, OPEC+ sources told Reuters.

OPEC+ agreed to cut output by a record 9.7 million barrels per day, or about 10 percent of global output, in May and June to lift prices battered by plunging demand linked to lockdown measures aimed at stopping the spread of the coronavirus.

Rather than easing output cuts in July, OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, were discussing keeping those cuts beyond June.

“Saudi Arabia and Russia are aligned on the extension for one month,” one OPEC source said.

“Any agreement on extending the cuts is conditional on countries who have not fully complied in May deepening their cuts in upcoming months to offset their overproduction,” the source said.

The group also considered holding an online meeting today to discuss output policy, after Algeria, which holds the presidency of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, proposed bringing forward a meeting planned for June 9-10.

Weak compliance

The OPEC source said that an earlier meeting today is also conditional on compliance and that the discussions now are about implementing criteria for those countries who have not fully complied with the oil cuts and how they can compensate for their overproduction in the coming months.

OPEC members Iraq and Nigeria have shown weak compliance with its output reduction targets in May.

Kazakhstan also failed to fully meet its obligations under the OPEC+ oil cut pact.

Two sources also said Gulf OPEC producers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are not discussing extending their deeper voluntary oil cuts of 1.18 million bpd beyond June.

Oil prices rose in recent days from the lows of April buoyed by a continuing recovery in China, while other economies are slowly opening up after lockdowns.

“Overall the market is moving in the right direction with the gradual easing of the lockdown. But we still need to be cautious. There is always a risk of another wave of the coronavirus,” the first OPEC source said.