France and China at a crossroad: Need for a strategic vision

It would be particularly unfortunate if, due to a handful of misunderstandings, European leaders are not able to take advantage of available opportunities to improve dialogue with China. Indeed, it is more urgent than ever to host high-level bilateral meetings to define together a realistic roadmap to solve some of the ongoing conflicts and, at the same time, the best strategy to restore impetus to the world economy.

However, while dialogue with countries such as Hungary or Serbia might be easily oriented toward success, grounded on bilateral scientific and academic collaboration, cooperation with a country like France appears more complicated.

On one hand, China deeply appreciates France, considering the country its political point of reference in Europe, thanks to its vision anchored on the idea of ​​strategic independence. On the other hand, the fact that France does not always assume the responsibilities as well as consequences of such a smart and bold choice is raising some skepticism both in Europe and in China.

Yet there would be at least three good reasons that should convince President Emmanuel Macron to try to reach out to his Chinese counterpart.

First, the expected expansion of China's economic presence in Europe. Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Hungary, Serbia, the Czech Republic, as well as the United Kingdom and Italy, albeit more indirectly, all have progressively stopped not only supporting the decoupling narrative, but also that of derisking.

With due respect and attention, China is destined to become a leading economic and strategic player in Europe, including the most cutting-edge new technologies, from renewable energy to artificial intelligence. And Paris knows very well that entering this game as a latecomer is never convenient.

Secondly, there is the issue of world peace and stability, today increasingly jeopardized by multiple crises.

After the joint success of the United Nations Resolution 2728 demanding a ceasefire in Gaza during Ramadan voted on March 25, with only the United States abstenting from voting, France should try to reopen the dialogue for a ceasefire on another front, Ukraine, with China.

While China is taking note of the current equilibrium on the battlefield and pushing for a dialogue that leaves Russia and Ukraine free to decide the terms of an acceptable way out, France seems apparently determined to protect Ukraine "no matter the cost," an expression so dear to Macron.

Yet, intransigence will certainly not help bring two years of conflict to an end. This is why it is hoped that the French leader is just bluffing to test the waters as well as the real intentions of his multiple counterparts.

Actually, if this preliminary phase of exploration of intentions and will is prodromal to the identification of a concerted path toward compromise, Macron would once again demonstrate his strategic intelligence and foresight.

Thirdly, the French president has already expressed his interest in participating in a BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) meeting. This is not just a rhetorical wish, rather the confirmation of his awareness that BRICS is destined to significantly alter its weight and role within the international community. And, for this reason, BRICS deserves to be monitored closely.

China is one of the key countries in this group, as is Russia, and it is unthinkable that, without their support, BRICS would reciprocate France's interest.

It is today a matter of fact that the confrontational approach endorsed by the US has created disorder, rather than order. To create order, dialogue is needed, and this dialogue must be multilateral and inclusive to be successful.

Macron is perhaps one of the few leaders in Europe to have understood that a multilateral dialogue does not mean abandoning one's own values ​​and principles, but rather taking a deeper interest in those of others. Facilitating mutual understanding and confidence building is another good reason for France to hold a constructive dialogue with China, and thereby confirm the solidity of his strategic vision.

(The author is an independent researcher based in Paris. The views are her own.)