Wealthy families cool on economic outlook

China's wealthy families are slightly less optimistic over the prospects for the Chinese economy as GDP growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2018 amid a complex external environment and growing uncertainties, the Bank of Communications said in a report on Thursday.

The bimonthly Climate Index of China’s Wealth fell 2 points from two months earlier to 138 points in January.

A reading above 100 indicates growth in wealth; below 100, a deterioration.

The economic climate sub-index dipped 2 points to 139; income growth also edged down 1 point to 153; and the investment intention sub-index slipped 2 points to 124 from November.

The reading of the wealth climate index indicated that well-off families are cautious about the future of the Chinese economy under the downward pressure, BoCom said.

China's economy grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter of last year at 6.4 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point below the third quarter.

The year-on-year growth in value-added industrial output was 0.1 percentage point slower for the whole year 2018 compared with the reading in the January-November period.

The sub-index for economic climate slipped as the indicator of investment climate and that of employment situation both fell two points. The report attributed the decline to cooler factory and service activities partly influenced by the halt in production before and during the Spring Festival.

The fall in the sub-index for income growth was led by higher spending in food, entertainment, tourism and travel and higher prices for vegetables, fruits and aquatic products around the Spring Festival, BoCom said.

Meanwhile, the investment intention sub-index also dipped two points with lower investment intention for current assets with concerns and for real estate, due to slower global economic growth and increasing market uncertainties.

The eastern and southern areas of the country, and the Beijng, Shanghai and Shenzhen area all posted a decline of two points in the Climate Index of China's Wealth, as official data showed that 10 provinces or cities in the east — Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hainan  — together posted 0.1 percentage point slower growth in fixed-asset investment in January-November from a year earlier.

The survey covered 1,821 well-off families in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chengdu and 21 other major cities.

The definition of well-off varies by location. In Beijing and Shanghai it means an after-tax income of more than 240,000 yuan (US$35,791) a year, over 180,000 yuan in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing and Tianjin, and above 170,000 yuan in Hangzhou.