Academic says Hebei on good path in fight against virus

The COVID-19 outbreak in Hebei Province will turn a corner at the end of the month, according to an academic in Tianjin.

"The situation in Hebei is different than it was in Wuhan last year," said Zhang Boli, an academic with the Chinese Academy of Engineering and president of the Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, after visiting every hospital treating the newly confirmed cases in Hebei this month. "When the Wuhan cases were cleared, they were completely gone. But in Hebei, even if the cases are cleared, the cold season is very conducive to the survival of the virus, and sporadic cases will follow. As long as the number of new cases in Hebei is in single digits, it will signal a turning point has emerged."

Zhang said the focus of COVID-19 prevention and control in Hebei has shifted to patient rehabilitation. Although those discharged from hospitals aren't infectious, that doesn't mean they're cured. 

"Many patients still have some inflammation in their lungs when they're discharged, and some still have compromised immune systems," he said, adding that active intervention is the best way for patients to lead healthy lives.

Zhang believes the chance that recovered patients will contract the virus a second time is very low -- most likely less than 5 percent. Moreover, they're at best mildly contagious, and there have been no cases of discharged patients infecting others. 

"There was a group of positive cases in Wuhan at that time, and they tested positive 18 times over several months," he said. "In the end, virus cultivation found they were all dead viruses, which were almost non-infectious.”

Zhang is encouraging people not to travel during the Chinese New Year holiday unless necessary.

"I think the sacrifices are worthwhile for the sake of long-term benefits," he said.